Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2531 at 07:10, 11%.

Safest bet that day DL 2531 LGA 07:10 → TPA 10:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 508 LGA 16:40 → TPA 19:34 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	TPA 10:01	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 2805 American Flight history →	LGA 08:26	TPA 11:21	16%	7%	0.6%	84%
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:40	TPA 13:28	22%	6%	0.8%	79%
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	TPA 15:28	28%	7%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
DL 2404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:39	TPA 18:54	41%	17%	1.6%	74%worse than usual
DL 2433 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	TPA 22:15	41%	26%	2.1%	62%
AA 2845 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	TPA 19:04	56%	25%	1.6%	56%worse than usual
AA 508 American Flight history →	LGA 16:40	TPA 19:34	58%	25%	1.6%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON