tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:56 pm at New York); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4630 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → LGA 16:52 TUL 19:28 24% 6% 0.4% 59%
AA 4341 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 19:29 TUL 22:08 24% 5% 0.3% 67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396 3h 57m Chicago ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 9h 06m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → LGA 15:30 → MIA 19:06AA 3017 2h 19m Miami MIA 21:25 → TUL 23:43AA 3380 · flown by Envoy 9h 13m 88% 76%
DeltaDetails → LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 8h 19m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 3h 03m Chicago ORD 20:23 → TUL 22:14UA 2351 7h 49m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:20 → DEN 17:56UA 1729 2h 59m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 9h 27m 96% 68%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 17:30 → BNA 19:25WN 2448 2h 50m Nashville BNA 22:15 → TUL 00:02 +1WN 746 7h 32m 96% 68%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 17:30 → MDW 19:20WN 4746 2h 10m Chicago MDW 21:30 → TUL 23:26WN 301 6h 56m 89% 64%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:38 → IAH 18:46UA 1794 1h 19m Houston IAH 20:05 → TUL 21:56UA 1927 7h 18m 84% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:55 → MIA 20:22AA 605 1h 03m Miami MIA 21:25 → TUL 23:43AA 3380 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 67% 57%
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 1h 11m Chicago ORD 20:23 → TUL 22:14UA 2351 5h 49m 68% 51%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → ATL 21:20DL 964 58m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 6h 19m 62% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON