Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:30 am at Long Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 165 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 10:30	BNA 16:30	20%	3%	0.1%	81%
WN 3821 Southwest	LGB 10:02	BNA 15:54	21%	4%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 08:30 → RNO 09:50WN 3716	3h 00m Reno	RNO 12:50 → BNA 18:56WN 554	8h 26m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:00 → SLC 10:45WN 2501	1h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 12:15 → BNA 16:34WN 1381	6h 34m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	LGB 19:00 → SMF 20:30WN 2507	2h 35m Sacramento	SMF 23:05 → BNA 05:16 +1WN 3895	8h 16m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LGB 07:00 → SLC 09:53DL 3135	3h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205	9h 13m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485	4h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 23:25 → BNA 05:00 +1WN 2191	8h 45m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	8h 05m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 16:30 → BNA 18:01WN 2838	7h 46m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483	3h 35m Houston	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:38WN 2014	8h 48m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON