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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Sacramento, leaving 16:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGB 16:20 → SMF 17:45WN 4897 3h 55m Sacramento SMF 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3622 10h 15m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542 3h 15m Chicago MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616 9h 00m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 16:30 → SJC 17:45WN 4307 3h 55m San Jose SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 621 10h 15m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574 1h 15m Denver DEN 12:25 → BWI 17:52WN 1563 6h 57m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483 1h 45m Houston HOU 15:50 → BWI 20:04WN 2105 8h 14m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165 4h 00m Nashville BNA 20:30 → BWI 23:20WN 468 9h 50m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485 2h 45m Las Vegas LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 1069 8h 30m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 13:25 → LAS 14:35WN 2334 1h 55m Las Vegas LAS 16:30 → BWI 00:10 +1WN 2206 7h 45m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGB 19:55 → SLC 22:45WN 2229 50m Salt Lake City SLC 23:35 → BWI 05:40 +1WN 3735 6h 45m 61% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON