tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1417 Southwest LGB 06:50 DAL 11:53 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 264 Southwest Flight history → LGB 09:30 DAL 14:30 12% 2% 0.5% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542 2h 15m Chicago MDW 16:20 → DAL 18:35WN 2758 8h 20m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483 1h 55m Houston HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40 6h 20m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 13:30 → SMF 14:55WN 2505 2h 30m Sacramento SMF 17:25 → DAL 22:50WN 3772 7h 20m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497 3h 30m San Jose SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965 8h 05m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:05 → OAK 08:25WN 4947 2h 35m Oakland OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014 7h 20m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484 58m Las Vegas LAS 09:03 → DAL 13:43WN 2273 4h 53m 95% 80%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255 5h 30m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 13:25 → LAS 14:35WN 2334 2h 45m Las Vegas LAS 17:20 → DAL 22:10WN 2220 6h 45m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGB 15:15 → LAS 16:25WN 2414 55m Las Vegas LAS 17:20 → DAL 22:10WN 2220 4h 55m 70% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON