Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:05 am at Long Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2396 Southwest	LGB 09:05	HOU 14:20	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 2483 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:50	HOU 14:05	17%	3%	0.4%	88%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497	1h 10m San Jose	SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673	6h 10m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	3h 20m Denver	DEN 14:30 → HOU 17:56WN 4525	8h 01m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 15:45 → HOU 18:32WN 2891	8h 17m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491	1h 27m Phoenix	PHX 10:37 → HOU 15:17WN 1049	5h 27m	95%	72%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05WN 2484	3h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 11:25 → HOU 16:35WN 4724	7h 45m	98%	72%
Southwest Details →	LGB 06:55 → SMF 08:20WN 2503	2h 40m Sacramento	SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782	7h 50m	100%	71%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238	3h 10m Denver	DEN 16:10 → HOU 19:36WN 1599	7h 51m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:30 → DAL 14:30WN 264	1h 32m Dallas	DAL 16:02 → HOU 17:22WN 39	5h 52m	97%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON