Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:48 am at Long Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2396 at 09:05, 21%.

Nonstops today


WN 2396 Southwest	LGB 09:05	HOU 14:20	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2483 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 08:50	HOU 14:05	22%	3%	0.6%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497	1h 10m San Jose	SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673	6h 10m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 17:40 → HOU 20:15WN 2785	10h 00m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:30 → DAL 14:30WN 264	2h 32m Dallas	DAL 17:02 → HOU 18:21WN 43	6h 51m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574	3h 20m Denver	DEN 14:30 → HOU 17:56WN 4525	8h 01m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238	3h 10m Denver	DEN 16:10 → HOU 19:36WN 1599	7h 51m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165	2h 53m Nashville	BNA 19:23 → HOU 21:37WN 569	9h 07m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	LGB 14:50 → DEN 18:05WN 2479	2h 20m Denver	DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026	7h 05m	97%	65%
Southwest Details →	LGB 16:10 → PHX 17:30WN 2493	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 20:55 → HOU 01:34 +1WN 3420	7h 24m	99%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON