Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:43 am at Long Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGB 13:00 → SLC 15:49DL 1116	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	7h 47m	91%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON