Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2484 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2484 LGB 06:50 → LAS 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2414 LGB 15:15 → LAS 16:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2484 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 06:50	LAS 08:05	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 2559 Southwest	LGB 06:55	LAS 08:05	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 749 Southwest	LGB 08:47	LAS 09:57	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2234 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 10:10	LAS 11:20	13%	2%	0.5%	82%
WN 2334 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 13:25	LAS 14:35	20%	5%	0.5%	64%
WN 2485 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 18:15	LAS 19:25	20%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 2414 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 15:15	LAS 16:25	22%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON