tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3013 Southwest LGB 07:55 MDW 13:55 9% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4542 Southwest Flight history → LGB 08:15 MDW 14:05 9% 1% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGB 19:00 → SMF 20:30WN 2507 3h 20m Sacramento SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802 8h 45m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 19:50 → SJC 21:10WN 2500 1h 45m San Jose SJC 22:55 → MDW 05:00 +1WN 3886 7h 10m 94% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:50 → PHX 09:10WN 2491 3h 11m Phoenix PHX 12:21 → MDW 17:50WN 1181 8h 00m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10WN 2497 1h 55m San Jose SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357 7h 10m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574 1h 50m Denver DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601 6h 25m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 09:45 → DEN 13:00WN 4238 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603 7h 30m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 12:35 → AUS 17:30WN 2476 3h 40m Austin AUS 21:10 → MDW 23:45WN 361 9h 10m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165 3h 55m Nashville BNA 20:25 → MDW 22:00WN 4286 9h 30m 100% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON