Today: WN 2492 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet today WN 2492 LGB 09:45 → PHX 11:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2494 LGB 20:15 → PHX 21:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2492 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 09:45	PHX 11:05	17%	3%	0.2%	88%
WN 2569 Southwest	LGB 11:00	PHX 12:25	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 198 Southwest	LGB 20:35	PHX 22:01	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 2493 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 16:10	PHX 17:30	30%	6%	0.1%	57%
WN 3095 Southwest	LGB 14:50	PHX 16:15	31%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 2494 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 20:15	PHX 21:50	33%	7%	0.1%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON