Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2497 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2497 LGB 07:00 → SJC 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2500 LGB 19:50 → SJC 21:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2497 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 07:00	SJC 08:10	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3208 Southwest	LGB 08:15	SJC 09:39	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1594 Southwest	LGB 11:15	SJC 12:39	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4973 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 12:00	SJC 13:10	14%	3%	0.5%	93%
WN 4307 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 16:30	SJC 17:45	16%	5%	0.5%	78%
WN 2500 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:50	SJC 21:10	17%	5%	0.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON