Today: WN 1381 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet today WN 1381 LGB 08:55 → SLC 11:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2229 LGB 19:55 → SLC 22:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1381 Southwest	LGB 08:55	SLC 11:46	10%	3%	0.1%	no record
DL 3793 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LGB 16:55	SLC 19:58	13%	4%	0.1%	92%
OO 144 SkyWest	LGB 16:47	SLC 19:42	14%	4%	0.1%	no record
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	LGB 13:00	SLC 15:49	16%	4%	0.1%	87%
WN 1450 Southwest	LGB 18:05	SLC 20:56	23%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 2229 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:55	SLC 22:45	25%	6%	0.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON