Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3033 at 09:27 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3033 LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2061 LIT 19:11 → ATL 21:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3033 Delta Flight history →	LIT 09:27	ATL 12:05	8%	4%	1.0%	92%
DL 1565 Delta Flight history →	LIT 05:25	ATL 07:59	8%	4%	1.2%	94%
DL 1396 Delta Flight history →	LIT 06:47	ATL 09:25	10%	4%	1.2%	93%
DL 3040 Delta Flight history →	LIT 11:50	ATL 14:28	13%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1347 Delta Flight history →	LIT 13:34	ATL 16:16	14%	4%	0.8%	81%
DL 3027 Delta Flight history →	LIT 15:59	ATL 18:42	15%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 3025 Delta Flight history →	LIT 17:14	ATL 19:58	16%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 2061 Delta	LIT 19:11	ATL 21:55	21%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON