tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:15 pm at Little Rock); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3705 Southwest LIT 16:40 BNA 18:01 26% 5% 0.1% no record
WN 4301 Southwest Flight history → LIT 16:40 BNA 17:50 26% 5% 0.1% 47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LIT 13:35 → DEN 15:04UA 4686 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 7h 38m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → LIT 14:13 → ORD 16:18AA 3398 · flown by Envoy 3h 22m Chicago ORD 19:40 → BNA 21:25AA 6326 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → LIT 17:14 → ATL 19:58DL 3025 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 6h 01m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → LIT 14:12 → ORD 16:27UA 5382 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Chicago ORD 18:57 → BNA 20:31UA 739 6h 19m 92% 72%
UnitedDetails → LIT 15:36 → IAH 17:25UA 5376 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Houston IAH 20:02 → BNA 22:23UA 750 6h 47m 94% 70%
SouthwestDetails → LIT 19:05 → DAL 20:15WN 586 2h 25m Dallas DAL 22:40 → BNA 00:34 +1WN 1330 5h 29m 100% 69%
SouthwestDetails → LIT 15:45 → DEN 17:00WN 2518 3h 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → BNA 00:30 +1WN 2922 8h 45m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 5h 45m 94% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 17:23 → IAH 19:10UA 5478 · flown by SkyWest 52m Houston IAH 20:02 → BNA 22:23UA 750 5h 00m 68% 51%
AmericanDetails → LIT 17:38 → DFW 19:14AA 4008 · flown by Envoy 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 1500 4h 32m 68% 42%
UnitedDetails → LIT 15:36 → IAH 17:25UA 5376 · flown by SkyWest 55m Houston IAH 18:20 → BNA 20:34UA 5359 · flown by SkyWest 4h 58m 60% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON