Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4158 LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5672 LIT 18:31 → CLT 21:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4158 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:09	CLT 10:18	14%	3%	0.4%	94%
AA 4146 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:24	CLT 16:33	14%	3%	0.4%	85%
AA 3633 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 18:40	CLT 21:50	14%	2%	0.6%	73%
AA 6228 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 09:20	CLT 12:34	15%	6%	0.5%	79%
AA 5672 American flown by PSA Flight history →	LIT 18:31	CLT 21:35	18%	5%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON