Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:59 am at Little Rock); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2751 Southwest	LIT 17:45	DAL 19:04	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 586 Southwest Flight history →	LIT 19:05	DAL 20:15	26%	5%	0.3%	52%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 26m	93%	64%
Southwest Details →	LIT 16:40 → BNA 17:50WN 4301	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 21:35 → DAL 23:36WN 533	6h 56m	98%	63%
Southwest Details →	LIT 15:45 → DEN 17:00WN 2518	3h 30m Denver	DEN 20:30 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	7h 45m	100%	61%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 04m	90%	58%
Southwest Details →	LIT 11:25 → LAS 12:35WN 4403	2h 38m Las Vegas	LAS 15:13 → DAL 19:54WN 1326	8h 29m	96%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LIT 15:45 → DEN 17:00WN 2518	50m Denver	DEN 17:50 → DAL 21:05WN 1521	5h 20m	72%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON