Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:52 pm at Little Rock); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:14, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 17:14 → ATL 19:58DL 3025	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 38m	93%	65%
American Details →	LIT 18:31 → CLT 21:35AA 5672 · flown by PSA	52m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	4h 22m	81%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LIT 17:38 → DFW 19:14AA 4008 · flown by Envoy	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	5h 21m	68%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON