Today: WN 2337 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–30%.

Safest bet today WN 2337 LIT 11:10 → DEN 12:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5429 LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2337 Southwest	LIT 11:10	DEN 12:26	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1910 United	LIT 09:02	DEN 10:40	15%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 4686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 13:35	DEN 15:04	16%	8%	0.2%	88%
UA 1081 United Flight history →	LIT 09:00	DEN 10:24	17%	7%	0.2%	86%
WN 2518 Southwest Flight history →	LIT 15:45	DEN 17:00	24%	4%	0.2%	65%
UA 5429 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 16:39	DEN 18:25	30%	8%	0.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON