Today: AA 3364 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet today AA 3364 LIT 06:01 → DFW 07:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest OH 5087 LIT 16:12 → DFW 17:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3364 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:01	DFW 07:40	9%	3%	0.6%	100%
AA 4049 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 05:55	DFW 07:20	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 3641 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 09:18	DFW 10:54	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 3628 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 09:06	DFW 10:43	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 3632 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 11:34	DFW 13:08	17%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 3636 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:51	DFW 15:25	22%	5%	0.7%	74%
MQ 3505 Envoy	LIT 18:58	DFW 20:37	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5079 PSA	LIT 12:03	DFW 13:30	23%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 3635 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 18:53	DFW 20:30	23%	5%	0.7%	75%
OH 5080 PSA	LIT 13:54	DFW 15:22	24%	9%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3520 Envoy	LIT 17:44	DFW 19:20	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3631 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 19:43	DFW 21:18	26%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 3674 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 19:49	DFW 21:27	26%	5%	0.7%	67%
AA 4008 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 17:38	DFW 19:14	28%	5%	0.7%	61%
OH 5087 PSA	LIT 16:12	DFW 17:40	31%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON