tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:46 pm at Little Rock); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:59, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961 7h 00m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → LIT 14:12 → ORD 16:27UA 5382 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Chicago ORD 20:07 → LGA 23:25UA 2827 8h 13m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → LIT 14:13 → ORD 16:18AA 3398 · flown by Envoy 3h 41m Chicago ORD 19:59 → LGA 23:21AA 679 8h 08m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → LIT 14:46 → ORD 16:21UA 4182 · flown by GoJet 3h 24m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 7h 29m 93% 64%
AmericanDetails → LIT 13:51 → DFW 15:25AA 3636 · flown by Envoy 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 8h 54m 97% 61%
DeltaDetails → LIT 17:14 → ATL 19:58DL 3025 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 5h 10m 79% 61%
SouthwestDetails → LIT 16:40 → BNA 17:50WN 4301 2h 15m Nashville BNA 20:05 → LGA 23:25WN 2144 5h 45m 94% 58%
UnitedDetails → LIT 15:36 → IAH 17:25UA 5376 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Houston IAH 18:28 → LGA 22:51UA 2682 6h 15m 76% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 14:12 → ORD 16:27UA 5382 · flown by SkyWest 51m Chicago ORD 17:18 → LGA 20:39UA 456 5h 27m 65% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON