Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:51 am at Little Rock); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: YX 4798 at 19:53 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–31%.

Safest bet today YX 4798 LIT 19:53 → ORD 21:51 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5382 LIT 14:12 → ORD 16:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4798 Republic	LIT 19:53	ORD 21:51	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 4182 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	LIT 14:36	ORD 16:45	19%	5%	0.5%	67%
AA 4062 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 19:35	ORD 21:45	20%	4%	0.6%	59%
AA 3398 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 14:13	ORD 16:18	20%	4%	0.3%	77%
MQ 3588 Envoy	LIT 12:34	ORD 13:54	25%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 5382 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 14:12	ORD 16:27	31%	7%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON