tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:38 pm at Little Rock); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:56, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 17:56 → SLC 20:08DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 7h 35m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → LIT 14:36 → ORD 16:45UA 4182 · flown by GoJet 3h 45m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 9h 51m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → LIT 14:13 → ORD 16:18AA 3398 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Chicago ORD 19:08 → PHX 21:11AA 2554 8h 58m 94% 68%
UnitedDetails → LIT 17:23 → IAH 19:10UA 5478 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 7h 02m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → LIT 13:35 → DEN 15:04UA 4686 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Denver DEN 18:26 → PHX 19:26UA 1507 7h 51m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → LIT 13:24 → CLT 16:33AA 4146 · flown by Envoy 1h 50m Charlotte CLT 18:23 → PHX 19:51AA 1073 8h 27m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25UA 5429 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Denver DEN 21:04 → PHX 22:13UA 1194 7h 34m 93% 64%
DeltaDetails → LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842 8h 40m 96% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LIT 14:12 → ORD 16:27UA 5382 · flown by SkyWest 51m Chicago ORD 17:18 → PHX 19:06UA 2053 6h 54m 59% 43%
UnitedDetails → LIT 15:36 → IAH 17:25UA 5376 · flown by SkyWest 58m Houston IAH 18:23 → PHX 19:15UA 1259 5h 39m 66% 42%
AmericanDetails → LIT 17:38 → DFW 19:14AA 4008 · flown by Envoy 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:14 → PHX 20:48AA 3232 5h 10m 67% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON