Today: WN 1789 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–32%.

Safest bet today WN 1789 MAF 06:55 → DEN 07:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5472 MAF 17:23 → DEN 18:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 1789 Southwest	MAF 06:55	DEN 07:47	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5794 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:34	DEN 08:50	20%	8%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
UA 5822 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:58	DEN 08:55	24%	9%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
UA 4807 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 13:45	DEN 14:47	29%	11%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
UA 5472 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DEN 18:25	32%	8%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON