Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2524 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2524 MAF 09:50 → HOU 11:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 2525 MAF 14:35 → HOU 16:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2524 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 09:50	HOU 11:20	7%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 4896 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 07:15	HOU 08:45	8%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 2601 Southwest	MAF 07:46	HOU 09:24	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2604 Southwest	MAF 20:25	HOU 22:03	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2602 Southwest	MAF 13:09	HOU 14:47	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2603 Southwest	MAF 18:20	HOU 19:58	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2526 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 18:05	HOU 19:40	19%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 2525 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 14:35	HOU 16:05	20%	5%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON