Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:47 am at Midland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4593 Southwest	MAF 11:10	LAS 11:28	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 342 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 15:55	LAS 16:10	28%	7%	0.7%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MAF 07:15 → HOU 08:45WN 4896	1h 55m Houston	HOU 10:40 → LAS 11:51WN 2056	6h 36m	100%	80%
United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 00m	98%	79%
United Details →	MAF 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2281	3h 27m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 13m	98%	79%
United Details →	MAF 07:58 → DEN 08:55UA 5822 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 26m	93%	77%
United Details →	MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa	2h 57m Houston	IAH 16:34 → LAS 17:47UA 2190	7h 50m	98%	74%
Southwest Details →	MAF 18:35 → DAL 19:55WN 57	2h 50m Dallas	DAL 22:45 → LAS 23:35WN 4378	7h 00m	95%	73%
American Details →	MAF 07:54 → DFW 09:13AA 3352 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → LAS 12:05AA 1482	6h 11m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	MAF 14:40 → DAL 16:00WN 1277	3h 10m Dallas	DAL 19:10 → LAS 20:00WN 1323	7h 20m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MAF 20:14 → DFW 21:42AA 4279 · flown by Envoy	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:33 → LAS 23:25AA 624	5h 11m	60%	37%
American Details →	MAF 18:42 → DFW 20:06AA 6199 · flown by SkyWest	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:54 → LAS 21:45AA 1797	5h 03m	45%	29%
American Details →	MAF 18:46 → DFW 20:20AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:08 → LAS 21:59AA 2371	5h 13m	32%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON