Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3577 at 19:57, 24%.

Safest bet today DL 3577 MCI 19:57 → AUS 22:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest WN 302 MCI 19:25 → AUS 21:25 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3577 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 19:57	AUS 22:00	24%	9%	0.7%	67%
DL 3650 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 09:59	AUS 12:02	26%	8%	0.5%	93%worse than usual
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 12:20	AUS 14:10	31%	4%	0.2%	78%
WN 2608 Southwest	MCI 14:15	AUS 16:15	33%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4749 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:20	AUS 19:15	45%	7%	0.2%	45%
WN 302 Southwest	MCI 19:25	AUS 21:25	46%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON