Today: WN 2013 at 10:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet today WN 2013 MCI 10:40 → BNA 12:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4502 MCI 18:00 → BNA 19:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2013 Southwest	MCI 10:40	BNA 12:21	8%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 4649 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 09:30	BNA 11:00	9%	2%	0.1%	88%
WN 2359 Southwest	MCI 12:05	BNA 13:46	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 2533 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 13:25	BNA 15:00	12%	3%	0.1%	79%
WN 5069 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:00	BNA 16:35	12%	3%	0.1%	83%
WN 3196 Southwest	MCI 15:35	BNA 17:16	16%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 4269 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:10	BNA 19:45	23%	4%	0.1%	30%
WN 4502 Southwest	MCI 18:00	BNA 19:41	24%	4%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON