Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 675 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 675 MCI 09:40 → BOS 13:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4997 MCI 14:10 → BOS 18:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 675 Delta Flight history →	MCI 09:40	BOS 13:44	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 314 Delta Flight history →	MCI 19:45	BOS 23:55	13%	9%	0.6%	64%
WN 1648 Southwest	MCI 08:20	BOS 12:19	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4997 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 14:10	BOS 18:10	22%	7%	0.5%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON