Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1057 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1057 MCI 05:00 → BWI 08:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1399 MCI 18:05 → BWI 21:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1057 Southwest	MCI 05:00	BWI 08:31	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2536 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:05	BWI 08:30	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 4670 Southwest	MCI 10:45	BWI 14:16	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1037 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:00	BWI 13:25	8%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 1399 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:05	BWI 21:35	18%	5%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON