Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1318 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1318 MCI 05:20 → DAL 07:02 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2540 MCI 19:25 → DAL 20:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1318 Southwest	MCI 05:20	DAL 07:02	2%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 4188 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:10	DAL 07:45	3%	1%	0.3%	90%
WN 4244 Southwest	MCI 07:00	DAL 08:42	3%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 1540 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 07:50	DAL 09:25	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 1752 Southwest	MCI 10:15	DAL 11:55	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3050 Southwest	MCI 12:55	DAL 14:35	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4759 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 13:00	DAL 14:35	13%	2%	0.6%	75%
WN 1323 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 16:55	DAL 18:30	15%	3%	0.6%	53%
WN 4455 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 21:25	DAL 22:55	17%	4%	0.5%	53%
WN 1251 Southwest	MCI 18:15	DAL 19:56	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2540 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:25	DAL 20:55	19%	4%	0.5%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON