Today: AA 4766 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today AA 4766 MCI 06:52 → DCA 10:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5505 MCI 17:18 → DCA 20:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4766 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MCI 06:52	DCA 10:37	5%	2%	0.2%	89%
WN 1078 Southwest	MCI 07:40	DCA 11:12	9%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2542 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 07:45	DCA 11:05	9%	1%	0.1%	86%
WN 2619 Southwest	MCI 11:35	DCA 15:08	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 5268 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MCI 09:17	DCA 12:59	16%	4%	0.6%	79%
OH 5413 PSA	MCI 06:26	DCA 09:12	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5524 PSA	MCI 10:39	DCA 14:20	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1458 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 12:30	DCA 15:50	19%	3%	0.1%	40%
OH 5085 PSA	MCI 16:33	DCA 20:10	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3546 Southwest	MCI 18:25	DCA 21:58	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 458 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:30	DCA 21:55	28%	9%	0.6%	42%
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MCI 17:18	DCA 20:59	33%	7%	0.8%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON