Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5358 at 11:33 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 5358 MCI 11:33 → DEN 12:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4827 MCI 20:25 → DEN 21:22 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5358 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 11:33	DEN 12:38	6%	5%	0.5%	94%
OO 4761 SkyWest	MCI 11:40	DEN 12:57	6%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2545 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:55	DEN 06:45	7%	2%	0.2%	91%
WN 2546 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:55	DEN 07:45	7%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 2621 Southwest	MCI 06:55	DEN 07:42	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2548 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:10	DEN 11:00	7%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 866 Southwest	MCI 12:20	DEN 13:09	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2622 Southwest	MCI 11:24	DEN 12:13	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	MCI 06:00	DEN 06:56	9%	4%	0.2%	97%
UA 708 United Flight history →	MCI 13:32	DEN 14:27	10%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 2623 Southwest	MCI 13:50	DEN 14:37	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5503 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 19:11	DEN 20:24	13%	6%	0.6%	75%
WN 1566 Southwest	MCI 08:20	DEN 09:09	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1563 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:05	DEN 15:55	13%	3%	0.5%	68%
F9 3375 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 13:45	DEN 14:50	14%	9%	0.7%	80%
OO 5684 SkyWest	MCI 19:09	DEN 20:01	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3169 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 08:25	DEN 09:10	14%	3%	0.2%	86%
WN 2624 Southwest	MCI 15:40	DEN 16:27	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1384 United Flight history →	MCI 09:00	DEN 10:14	16%	5%	0.2%	66%
WN 2549 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 16:15	DEN 17:05	16%	4%	0.5%	40%
UA 280 United Flight history →	MCI 09:10	DEN 10:17	16%	5%	0.2%	94%worse than usual
WN 3570 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:10	DEN 20:05	18%	4%	0.5%	65%
UA 1737 United	MCI 17:24	DEN 18:35	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2625 Southwest	MCI 19:05	DEN 19:52	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1146 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:15	DEN 18:10	20%	4%	0.5%	28%
UA 2123 United Flight history →	MCI 17:24	DEN 18:25	22%	5%	0.6%	64%
F9 4827 Frontier	MCI 20:25	DEN 21:22	23%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON