Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1098 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1098 MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 922 MCI 18:19 → DFW 20:16 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1098 American Flight history →	MCI 05:31	DFW 07:23	9%	4%	2.1%	89%
AA 3661 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 12:16	DFW 14:06	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 955 American Flight history →	MCI 06:39	DFW 08:32	12%	5%	1.6%	80%
AA 1261 American Flight history →	MCI 06:43	DFW 08:28	12%	5%	2.1%	87%
AA 2430 American	MCI 09:45	DFW 11:31	16%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 1376 American Flight history →	MCI 07:51	DFW 09:36	17%	5%	1.3%	74%
AA 2913 American	MCI 11:55	DFW 13:42	19%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 2050 American Flight history →	MCI 09:45	DFW 11:30	19%	5%	1.2%	75%
AA 602 American Flight history →	MCI 11:26	DFW 13:10	19%	7%	1.6%	83%
AA 6238 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 14:30	DFW 16:20	20%	12%	0.7%	70%
AA 2742 American	MCI 14:24	DFW 16:11	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 2047 American Flight history →	MCI 19:53	DFW 21:41	30%	9%	1.2%	62%
AA 922 American Flight history →	MCI 18:19	DFW 20:16	30%	9%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON