Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 688 MCI 12:30 → IAD 16:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1572 MCI 11:48 → IAD 15:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 688 United Flight history →	MCI 12:30	IAD 16:03	11%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MCI 17:45	IAD 21:26	11%	4%	0.7%	82%
YX 3546 Republic	MCI 17:46	IAD 21:22	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1572 United	MCI 11:48	IAD 15:32	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON