Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: OO 5305 at 15:29, 30%.

Safest bet today OO 5305 MCI 15:29 → IAH 17:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 5305 SkyWest	MCI 15:29	IAH 17:57	30%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 6113 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 18:20	IAH 20:40	14%	8%	0.6%	86%
UA 6124 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 14:56	IAH 17:13	16%	6%	1.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON