tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:29 am at Kansas City)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1432 Southwest Flight history → MCI 13:30 IND 16:00 11% 3% 0.4% 81%
WN 3658 Southwest MCI 15:40 IND 18:19 13% 4% 0.4% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 3h 02m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 6h 10m 99% 93%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40WN 2569 2h 10m Chicago MDW 09:50 → IND 11:54WN 2699 4h 39m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 05:15 → MDW 06:40WN 4276 3h 20m Chicago MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877 5h 50m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 2h 30m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic 5h 46m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → MCI 13:03 → ORD 14:55UA 5309 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Chicago ORD 18:08 → IND 20:27UA 3628 · flown by Republic 6h 24m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → MCI 11:25 → ORD 13:15UA 2437 3h 29m Chicago ORD 16:44 → IND 19:01UA 3418 · flown by Republic 6h 36m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → MCI 15:16 → ORD 17:05UA 2792 2h 40m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 5h 49m 96% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCI 09:18 → ORD 10:52AA 6349 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Chicago ORD 12:27 → IND 14:41AA 4713 · flown by Republic 4h 23m 96% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303 52m Chicago ORD 21:25 → IND 23:44UA 3660 · flown by Republic 4h 03m 64% 60%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:21 → PHL 21:10AA 2875 50m Philadelphia PHL 22:00 → IND 23:58AA 1247 5h 37m 71% 49%
AllegiantDetails → MCI 15:03 → VPS 17:15G4 3082 49m Valparaiso VPS 18:04 → IND 21:07G4 2242 5h 04m 54% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON