Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2392 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2392 MCI 05:51 → LAS 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4505 MCI 16:32 → LAS 17:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2392 Southwest	MCI 05:51	LAS 06:55	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 276 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:20	LAS 07:20	3%	1%	0.2%	92%
WN 1149 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 07:50	LAS 08:50	5%	1%	0.5%	96%
WN 2902 Southwest	MCI 08:41	LAS 09:43	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 237 Southwest	MCI 10:40	LAS 11:42	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4532 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 09:45	LAS 10:45	7%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 2631 Southwest	MCI 13:55	LAS 14:56	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2286 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:30	LAS 16:35	12%	3%	0.4%	76%
WN 5036 Southwest	MCI 15:11	LAS 16:11	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2288 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 20:25	LAS 21:25	14%	5%	0.5%	46%
WN 2566 Southwest	MCI 19:01	LAS 20:00	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4240 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:25	LAS 18:25	15%	4%	0.5%	40%
F9 4505 Frontier Flight history →	MCI 16:32	LAS 17:40	19%	10%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON