Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4827 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4827 MCI 05:30 → LAX 06:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1267 MCI 20:55 → LAX 22:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4827 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:30	LAX 06:55	7%	2%	0.2%	90%
WN 3908 Southwest	MCI 06:15	LAX 07:47	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
DL 1517 Delta Flight history →	MCI 15:55	LAX 17:20	10%	5%	0.7%	91%
UA 5489 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MCI 16:26	LAX 18:10	11%	6%	0.5%	97%
DL 2337 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:23	LAX 08:53	11%	3%	0.4%	95%
DL 1354 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:32	LAX 09:00	11%	3%	0.4%	94%
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:40	LAX 17:10	22%	5%	0.5%	65%
WN 1267 Southwest	MCI 20:55	LAX 22:22	25%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON