Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 370 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 370 MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 2564 MCI 17:40 → LGA 21:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 370 Delta Flight history →	MCI 06:00	LGA 09:50	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 3368 Southwest	MCI 05:45	LGA 09:35	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4862 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:45	LGA 09:30	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 572 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:40	LGA 14:32	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:55	LGA 22:46	20%	7%	0.8%	75%
WN 2563 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 11:15	LGA 15:00	26%	4%	0.6%	73%
WN 2636 Southwest	MCI 12:15	LGA 16:06	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2564 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:40	LGA 21:25	37%	9%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON