Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2209 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2209 MCI 05:00 → MCO 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2640 MCI 17:05 → MCO 20:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2209 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:00	MCO 08:45	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 2638 Southwest	MCI 05:15	MCO 08:58	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 353 Southwest	MCI 10:00	MCO 13:42	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3238 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 11:45	MCO 15:35	13%	6%	0.9%	84%
WN 2567 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 20:20	MCO 00:15	26%	10%	1.0%	61%
WN 2640 Southwest	MCI 17:05	MCO 20:48	33%	14%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON