Today: WN 2642 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet today WN 2642 MCI 05:30 → MDW 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 9 MCI 16:05 → MDW 17:30 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2642 Southwest	MCI 05:30	MDW 07:05	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2569 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 06:15	MDW 07:40	3%	1%	0.2%	97%
WN 4276 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:15	MDW 06:40	3%	1%	0.2%	93%
WN 4850 Southwest	MCI 07:25	MDW 09:00	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1774 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 08:15	MDW 09:40	7%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 2644 Southwest	MCI 10:30	MDW 12:07	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2571 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:50	MDW 12:15	11%	2%	0.2%	81%
WN 2998 Southwest	MCI 20:40	MDW 22:16	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2648 Southwest	MCI 19:30	MDW 21:07	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2029 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 17:35	MDW 19:00	16%	3%	0.6%	40%
WN 345 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 19:55	MDW 21:20	16%	4%	0.6%	65%
WN 2388 Southwest	MCI 14:10	MDW 15:46	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 2063 Southwest	MCI 16:10	MDW 17:47	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 2572 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 14:10	MDW 15:35	18%	3%	0.2%	48%
WN 9 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 16:05	MDW 17:30	21%	3%	0.2%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON