Today: AA 892 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet today AA 892 MCI 05:00 → MIA 09:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2443 MCI 17:15 → MIA 21:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 892 American Flight history →	MCI 05:00	MIA 09:18	9%	4%	0.3%	91%
AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 17:53	MIA 22:05	15%	4%	0.7%	84%
WN 2575 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:00	MIA 14:10	17%	4%	0.1%	96%worse than usual
AA 2443 American	MCI 17:15	MIA 21:33	26%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON