Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1608 MCI 12:39 → MSP 14:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1630 MCI 17:42 → MSP 19:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 1608 Delta Flight history →	MCI 12:39	MSP 14:12	11%	4%	0.2%	82%
DL 1349 Delta	MCI 12:21	MSP 13:52	12%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 1613 Delta Flight history →	MCI 16:04	MSP 17:40	13%	4%	0.2%	88%
DL 1630 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:42	MSP 19:15	17%	6%	0.2%	86%
DL 4867 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MCI 09:13	MSP 10:50	14%	6%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON