tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:03 pm at Kansas City)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 17:15, 28% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1519 Alaska Flight history → MCI 17:50 PDX 19:46 28% 11% 0.5% 88%worse than usual
AS 226 Alaska MCI 18:15 PDX 19:57 31% 11% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 9h 14m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCI 15:16 → ORD 17:05UA 2792 2h 50m Chicago ORD 19:55 → PDX 22:30UA 2738 9h 14m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 7h 44m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:21 → ORD 19:29AA 4745 · flown by Republic 1h 58m Chicago ORD 21:27 → PDX 00:13 +1AA 2977 8h 52m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → MCI 17:24 → DEN 18:25UA 2123 3h 05m Denver DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770 7h 49m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:55 → LAX 17:20DL 1517 2h 40m Los Angeles LAX 20:00 → PDX 22:13DL 2457 8h 18m 94% 66%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 17:25 → LAS 18:25WN 4240 3h 47m Las Vegas LAS 22:12 → PDX 00:34 +1WN 1937 9h 09m 100% 63%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 17:35 → MDW 19:00WN 2029 2h 35m Chicago MDW 21:35 → PDX 23:55WN 2852 8h 20m 94% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:04 → CLT 20:34AA 2046 53m Charlotte CLT 21:27 → PDX 23:55AA 3112 8h 51m 69% 36%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 17:15 → DEN 18:10WN 1146 50m Denver DEN 19:00 → PDX 20:42WN 726 5h 27m 63% 28%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 19:10 → DEN 20:05WN 3570 47m Denver DEN 20:52 → PDX 22:36WN 1778 5h 26m 57% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON