tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:12 pm at Kansas City); 5 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 18:10, 41% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2875 American Flight history → MCI 17:21 PHL 21:10 28% 8% 0.6% 76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:42 → MSP 19:15DL 1630 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 5h 14m 84% 70%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 19m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → MCI 17:37 → ORD 19:30UA 2770 2h 15m Chicago ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744 6h 20m 95% 68%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:21 → ORD 19:29AA 4745 · flown by Republic 1h 37m Chicago ORD 21:06 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 3177 6h 01m 94% 64%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → DTW 20:37DL 2761 58m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 4h 36m 79% 64%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 18:10 → STL 19:15WN 4341 1h 25m St Louis STL 20:40 → PHL 23:55WN 3966 4h 45m 83% 52%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 18:10 → BNA 19:45WN 4269 1h 35m Nashville BNA 21:20 → PHL 00:25 +1WN 634 5h 15m 87% 48%
AmericanDetails → MCI 17:37 → DFW 18:57AA 3030 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542 5h 58m 85% 42%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 18:10 → STL 19:15WN 4341 56m St Louis STL 20:11 → PHL 22:53WN 4401 3h 43m 71% 41%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 18:10 → BNA 19:45WN 4269 1h 00m Nashville BNA 20:45 → PHL 23:54WN 676 4h 44m 60% 36%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 17:15 → DEN 18:10WN 1146 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → PHL 00:45 +1WN 2686 6h 30m 51% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON