Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:07 am at Kansas City); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: AA 1480 at 11:46 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet today AA 1480 MCI 11:46 → PHL 15:38 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2875 MCI 17:21 → PHL 21:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1480 American	MCI 11:46	PHL 15:38	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 869 American Flight history →	MCI 13:26	PHL 17:15	19%	8%	0.5%	76%
AA 1268 American Flight history →	MCI 16:27	PHL 20:19	21%	8%	0.5%	65%
AA 2875 American Flight history →	MCI 17:21	PHL 21:10	26%	7%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON