Today: WN 2578 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet today WN 2578 MCI 05:50 → PHX 06:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2580 MCI 18:30 → PHX 19:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2578 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 05:50	PHX 06:35	5%	1%	0.2%	97%
WN 4365 Southwest	MCI 06:00	PHX 06:48	6%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2652 Southwest	MCI 08:45	PHX 09:33	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
AA 2645 American Flight history →	MCI 06:01	PHX 06:50	12%	6%	0.3%	92%
WN 4651 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 10:40	PHX 11:25	14%	4%	0.1%	86%
WN 3332 Southwest	MCI 13:12	PHX 13:59	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2058 American Flight history →	MCI 14:18	PHX 15:15	18%	8%	0.8%	86%
AA 1635 American	MCI 14:35	PHX 15:36	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2655 Southwest	MCI 22:05	PHX 22:52	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 2654 Southwest	MCI 19:40	PHX 20:27	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2581 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 21:15	PHX 22:00	27%	8%	0.5%	52%
WN 2580 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:30	PHX 19:15	30%	6%	0.5%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON