Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:04 pm at Kansas City); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Miami, leaving 17:53, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCI 17:53 → MIA 22:05AA 3939 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	6h 06m	88%	75%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	6h 09m	96%	70%
American Details →	MCI 17:12 → DFW 18:59AA 3030	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	5h 10m	85%	46%
American Details →	MCI 17:04 → CLT 20:34AA 2046	2h 27m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → PNS 23:46AA 1007	6h 42m	91%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON