Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:15 am at Kansas City); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 11:33, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 0% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1429 United Flight history →	MCI 19:59	SFO 21:50	19%	6%	0.6%	24%
UA 561 United	MCI 17:35	SFO 19:44	31%	10%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089	9h 42m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	7h 52m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	10h 58m	98%	80%
United Details →	MCI 17:37 → ORD 19:30UA 2770	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106	8h 55m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:10 → DTW 17:07DL 2741	3h 30m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → SFO 22:35DL 1327	10h 25m	100%	78%
United Details →	MCI 09:34 → ORD 11:29UA 5504 · flown by SkyWest	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334	10h 44m	100%	78%
United Details →	MCI 11:25 → ORD 13:15UA 2437	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 15:57 → SFO 18:49UA 2251	9h 24m	95%	75%
United Details →	MCI 17:45 → IAD 21:26UA 3628 · flown by Republic	55m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → SFO 01:15 +1UA 367	9h 30m	85%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCI 18:40 → ATL 21:54DL 1470	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	7h 56m	62%	51%
American Details →	MCI 18:19 → DFW 20:16AA 922	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:02 → SFO 22:51AA 2522	6h 32m	54%	33%
United Details →	MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest	49m Los Angeles	LAX 18:59 → SFO 20:40UA 2837	6h 14m	0%	0%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON