Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:42 am at Kansas City); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2882 at 14:55, 17%.

Nonstops today


DL 2882 Delta Flight history →	MCI 14:55	SLC 16:32	17%	4%	0.1%	84%
DL 2903 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:00	SLC 19:41	21%	6%	0.2%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	8h 03m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MCI 08:25 → DEN 09:10WN 3169	2h 35m Denver	DEN 11:45 → SLC 13:25WN 1731	6h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	7h 09m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	MCI 10:10 → DEN 11:00WN 2548	3h 20m Denver	DEN 14:20 → SLC 15:52WN 2330	6h 42m	100%	85%
United Details →	MCI 09:00 → DEN 10:14UA 1384	3h 26m Denver	DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840	7h 13m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	MCI 09:30 → BNA 11:00WN 4649	2h 10m Nashville	BNA 13:10 → SLC 15:38WN 4634	7h 08m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	MCI 10:40 → PHX 11:25WN 4651	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 13:10 → SLC 15:53WN 2489	6h 13m	100%	78%
United Details →	MCI 11:33 → DEN 12:38UA 5358 · flown by SkyWest	3h 51m Denver	DEN 16:29 → SLC 18:10UA 5261 · flown by SkyWest	7h 37m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MCI 19:10 → DEN 20:05WN 3570	48m Denver	DEN 20:53 → SLC 22:23WN 4270	4h 13m	63%	44%
Southwest Details →	MCI 18:30 → PHX 19:15WN 2580	50m Phoenix	PHX 20:05 → SLC 22:49WN 899	5h 19m	55%	40%
American Details →	MCI 18:19 → DFW 20:16AA 922	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	5h 40m	59%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON