tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 am at Kansas City)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3052 Southwest MCI 20:55 SMF 22:47 16% 6% 0.5% no record
WN 4828 Southwest Flight history → MCI 14:25 SMF 16:00 21% 4% 0.2% 77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 46m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 44m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:20 → LAS 07:20WN 276 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860 5h 45m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → SMF 22:55UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 29m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:55 → DEN 07:45WN 2546 2h 35m Denver DEN 10:20 → SMF 11:55WN 1740 7h 00m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40WN 2569 2h 40m Chicago MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094 8h 25m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 7h 11m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCI 15:16 → ORD 17:05UA 2792 2h 48m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 9h 23m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 18:30 → SAN 19:50WN 4457 1h 04m San Diego SAN 20:54 → SMF 22:37WN 4273 6h 07m 67% 46%
AmericanDetails → MCI 19:53 → DFW 21:41AA 2047 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 6h 06m 65% 45%
AmericanDetails → MCI 18:19 → DFW 20:16AA 922 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:13 → SMF 22:54AA 2329 6h 35m 62% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON